In the mid-20th Century, manufacturing growth drove the nation’s economy, providing good-paying jobs for workers with high school educations or less. However, the nation’s economy substantially transformed between 1970 and 2010, with manufacturing jobs dropping by 35% while overall employment grew by 83%. One in four non-farm jobs was in manufacturing in 1970, while only 8.9% were in 2010.
The 2000-2010 period was a significant break from the pattern of overall employment growth in the second half of the 20th Century. Overall, private-sector employment stagnated from 2000 to 2010, decreasing by about 1.9 million jobs to 130 million in 2010 because of two recessions – the first in 2001-2002 and the second beginning in 2008.
Manufacturing employment performance between 2000 and 2010 was also much weaker than in the earlier period. Almost six million manufacturing jobs were lost—one-third of the total in 2000, leaving 11,600,000 jobs in 2010. Much of the decline in manufacturing employment during the first decade of this Century was associated with increased competition from China.
Rust belt states, like New York, were particularly hard hit, losing 2.2 million manufacturing jobs. Michigan had substantial job losses in the recession of 2007-2009, with General Motors going into bankruptcy and overall auto sales down 40%. Michigan manufacturing jobs decreased by 429,000 (48%) The remaining Rust Belt states lost at least one-third of manufacturing jobs in 2000. New York manufacturing employment dropped by 289,000 jobs (39%.)
In a post written in 2016, “The Decline of Manufacturing in New York and the Rust Belt,” I looked at the decline in manufacturing through 2015, concluding, “Since 1970, New York and the Rust Belt region have seen a substantial transition from high concentrations of manufacturing employment to lower ones. In 1970, one-third of all private sector jobs in the Rust Belt outside New York State and more than 40% of private sector jobs in Rochester and Binghamton were in manufacturing. In 2014, manufacturing employment in New York State metropolitan areas ranged from 2.8 to 11.4% of private sector jobs.
Since 2010, manufacturing employment has leveled off. Whether this is a lasting change or a temporary stabilization after the substantial manufacturing employment losses between 2000 and 2010 is not known.”
In this post, I examine the change in manufacturing employment in New York State and the Rust Belt since 2010.
Employment Change after 2010
Although manufacturing jobs recovered after 2010, increasing by 11%, at the national level, they grew less than half as fast as overall private sector employment (25%). Manufacturing employment increased by 1.285 million, while private sector jobs increased by 27.169 million. Because manufacturing employment grew more slowly than private sector jobs, manufacturing accounted for only 9.5% of private sector jobs in September 2024 compared with 10.7% in 2020.
Manufacturing Employment in the Rust Belt
Manufacturing employment increased by 285,000 (8.5%) in the Rust Belt between 2010 and 2024. However, the increase only restored 13% of the jobs lost between 2000 and 2010. With the recovery of employment in the auto industry, Michigan saw an increase of 143,000, regaining about one-third of the 429,000 jobs lost between 2000 and 2010. Indiana regained 38% (75,000) of the jobs lost. Ohio regained 18% – (57,000), and Illinois 9% (12,000). However, New York lost 36,000 jobs, Massachusetts lost 19,000, and West Virginia lost 5,000.
The differing state-level manufacturing employment changes after 2010 partially reflect the automotive industry’s recovery after the Federal bailout. However, in others, the forces that have reduced manufacturing employment in the past continued to result in employment declines—including relatively high labor costs in the United States, the globalization of markets, the loss of technology advantages, and automation.
Rust Belt private sector jobs grew at more than twice the rate of manufacturing employment – 15.9% vs. 6.8%. Manufacturing employment increased by 229,700 in the Rust Belt but accounted for only 5% of the 4,790,400 private sector jobs created. Between 2010 and 2024, New York and Massachusetts lost more than 7% of manufacturing jobs, but private-sector employment in the two states increased by more than 18%. West Virginia’s performance was the weakest—it lost 10% of manufacturing employment and gained only 0.3% in the private sector.
A Closer Look at New York State
Although most states saw manufacturing employment growth from 2010 to 2024, New York lost more than 36,000 manufacturing jobs. However, though the overall picture in New York was negative, some counties and metropolitan areas grew.
Three counties in the Albany-Schenectady-Troy metropolitan area experienced significant manufacturing job growth. Rensselaer County manufacturing grew by 3,940 jobs, Saratoga grew by 2,041, and Albany increased by 2,018. At the opposite extreme, Manhattan lost 10,185 jobs, Monroe County lost 8,805, and Queens lost 6,492.
Metropolitan Areas
Like the rest of the nation, New York lost many manufacturing jobs in the first decade of this century. New York’s metropolitan areas lost 265,700 jobs, nearly 147,000 in the New York City metro area alone. Among upstate metro areas, Rochester had the most significant losses—42,900—partly because of the decline of its largest employer, Eastman Kodak. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, which had substantial automobile-related employment, lost 33,100.
After 2010, New York metros continued to lose manufacturing jobs, though at a much slower rate than in the previous decade. The state’s loss—36,200—was far smaller than the 289,000 lost between 2000 and 2010. The most significant job loss was again in the New York City metropolitan area. The New York portion of the New York Metropolitan area lost 26,200 jobs. Cost, location, and density-related disadvantages contributed to the losses in the New York area. Rochester suffered from continuing employment-related losses, with manufacturing jobs decreasing by 7,500, mostly in transportation equipment manufacturing, despite job increases in the sector at the national level. Albany, with 8,400 new jobs, and Buffalo, with 5,200, both saw gains, reflecting the state’s extensive investments in high-tech manufacturing in those regions.
A look at employment change in manufacturing and other private sector industries shows that changes in manufacturing employment after 2010 had a relatively small impact on metropolitan area job gains and losses. Although the New York Metro area had the most significant manufacturing job losses between 2010 and 2024 (26,200), private sector jobs increased by 1.2 million. Rochester, which had the second largest losses (7,500), gained 27,600 jobs. Even where there were relatively significant manufacturing job gains, in Albany-Schenectady-Troy and Buffalo-Niagara Falls, private sector gains were primarily from non-manufacturing jobs.
Conclusions
Manufacturing continues to offer relatively highly paid jobs, particularly for workers without college educations. In most places, average weekly wages exceed the average for service sector employment. In Albany, with its high concentration of jobs at technology-intensive employers like Global Foundries, Regeneron, and General Electric, average weekly wages at manufacturers were nearly 90% higher than at private service sector establishments. Wage differences were smaller in other metros but were still significant. In Buffalo-Niagara Falls, wages were 41% higher, in Rochester, wages were 31% higher, and in Syracuse, 49%.
Though manufacturing employment increased nationally between 2010 and 2024, reversing the sharp losses of the first decade of the current century, it grew at less than half the overall private sector employment rate. In New York State, manufacturing employment continued to decline after 2010, though at a much slower rate than before. Even so, New York private sector employment grew substantially after 2010—by almost 20%.
Between 2010 and 2024, New York’s manufacturing job losses were concentrated in the New York City metropolitan area. However, private-sector employment increased by almost 1.3 million—21%. As a group, manufacturing employment in the state’s other metros grew by 1,400 jobs during the period. However, performance varied, with 8,400 new jobs created in the Albany-Schenectady-Troy metropolitan area and 7,500 lost in the Rochester MSA.
Most upstate metropolitan areas saw private-sector employment growth, but the rate of increase was slow. In Rochester and Buffalo, employment grew 6% between 2010 and 2024, while in Syracuse, it grew by only 4%. Utica-Rome employment declined slightly—about 1%—while Binghamton’s decreased by 7%. Only Albany-Schenectady had significant growth outside the New York Metropolitan area, with an increase of 11%.
Manufacturing remains important to New York’s economy and the nation. It is a source of good-paying jobs. Extreme dependence on imported goods creates vulnerabilities like those the nation encountered during the COVID-19 Pandemic. However, the factors that have led to manufacturing’s decline—relatively high labor costs, the development of global markets and supply sources, and automation—remain. Significant state investments in high-technology manufacturing have had mixed results in New York State. Still, successes in the Albany-Schenectady-Troy metropolitan area, Utica-Rome, and Syracuse’s forthcoming Micron project show opportunities.
Thanks for this, John. Absolutely sobering. A propos your first graph, I remember going over the early-1990s decline in manufacturing employment in New Jersey, where I was working at the time, with the then-chief economist for the then-NJ Department of Commerce and Economic Development. We were really alarmed by the declines we were seeing in the period 1990-1993 that are now just a blip in the overall catastrophic fall depicted in the graph. Also I was disappointed to see in your NYS map continued overall declines in the past decade in the micropolitan areas of Corning and Plattsburgh, where we have significant transportation manufacturing, and even in Ithaca where some of the scientific spinouts from Cornell probably are under manufacturing NAICS codes. We have a lot more work to do.