Left Behind: Missing from the Labor Market in New York State

A reader of this blog recently wrote, “We know that labor force participation rates across the country have declined noticeably for a number of years, and many economists have warned of the troubling implications of this.  Such rates across Upstate NY have declined as well, and in most cases are significantly below the national average – not an encouraging sign.  In the North Country and the Mohawk Valley, they are not much above 50%, and in some other Upstate regions just a couple of percentage points higher. Clearly some of this indeed is because people have not been able to find jobs, and thus have left the labor force.  I don’t think a low unemployment rate necessarily indicates that “Upstate’s problem is not that its residents cannot find jobs.”

Low rates of labor market participation might indeed show that people are dropping out of the job market because of limited opportunities.  But, other factors are at work as well, including the aging of the population.  This post reviews labor market participation data in New York’s counties to understand changes over time and how low participation counties differ from those with higher participation rates.

A recent Brookings Institution study, “What we Know and Don’t Know about Declining Labor Force Participation: A Review” points out that: “This steady decline in prime-age male participation rates and recent stagnation of prime-age female rates has adverse implications for national economic growth and individual well-being. Workers between the ages of 25 and 54 tend to be at their most productive, so these trends affect economic growth as well as individual income. Further, as discussed below, lower work rates might be contributing to the decline in marriage and to poorer health and psychological well-being, possibly leading to an increase in premature deaths among certain populations.”

A significant part of the decline is explained by the aging of the population, as older workers move into retirement. John Robertson and Ellyn Terry of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank report that “In 2007, about one in five Americans were over 60 years old. In 2015, almost one in four were over 60. Moreover, this demographic force will continue to suppress the overall LFPR as the share of older Americans increases further in coming years.

But, labor force participation has declined overall.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in 2016 that, “From 2000 to 2015, most of the major demographic groups saw a decrease in labor force participation. Teenagers experienced the largest drop in participation, which coincided with a rise in their school enrollment rate. Young adults 20 to 24 years also showed a decline in labor force participation, but the decrease was not as steep as that for teenagers. The labor force participation rate of women 25 to 54 years also fell, with the decrease more pronounced for women who did not attend college. The labor force participation rate of men 25 to 54 years continued its long-term decline. As in the past, the decrease in participation among men with less education was greater than that of men with more education. However, labor force participation rates of men and women 55 years and older rose from 2000 to 2009 and subsequently leveled off.”

The causes of the decrease in labor force participation for prime age people include both the demand for workers and the supply of labor.  On the demand side, technology and trade have reduced the demand for low skilled manufacturing workers.  The disparity in demand for workers at low and high skill levels has increased, because technology has led to greater demand for workers with technical and managerial skills.  On the supply side, the Brookings Institution study points out that “the problems include not only a lack of skills but high reservation wages [the wage levels at which people are willing to accept jobs], poor health, and the availability of disability insurance or other forms of unearned income.


Labor Force Participation in New York State

In this post, I look at differences in the labor force participation level between counties in New York State.  Because the economic performance of the New York City Metropolitan area has been stronger than upstate New York since 2000, participation in the two regions is examined separately, where relevant.

This analysis is at the county level, and does not show differences in participation based on levels of economic disadvantage below the county level, particularly in urban centers where participation may also be low.

The data shows that while changes in labor market participation from 2005 to 2015 in the New York Metropolitan area, and in larger upstate metropolitan areas did not differ much from the nation as a whole, smaller metropolitan areas and rural upstate had greater declines than the nation.  Comparing county performance in 2015, large differences were found in the educational attainment of residents of better and worse performing counties.  The percentage of college graduates in the populations of the 15 counties in New York State was more than double that found in the 15 counties with the lowest level of participation.  The behavior of residents within particular socio-economic groups in counties with high and low labor market participation varied as well.  Disproportionately lower percentages of people who did not complete high school, residents who were black or Hispanic or male, and residents who were 25 and 34 years old and 55 and 64 participated in the labor market in counties where labor market participation was low.

Data is from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.  The Census Bureau data differs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics data referenced at the beginning of this post in its methodology and sample selection.   The differences in methodology are  discussed here.

In this post, I use two different data samples.   Beginning in 2005, county level labor force participation data is available from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.  The sample used for the section titled “Change over Time” is from single year samples of one percent of the United States population.  The single year samples are too small to permit an analysis of data for small population units.  Consequently, only 37 of 62 counties in New York State are included.  Because the sample is relatively small, estimates of smaller county characteristics can have relatively large errors – as much as 2.5% for labor force participation for the entire population, and as much as 5% for some groups within the overall population.

In the section “Comparison of Labor Force Participation at the County Level in 2015” I use a five-year sample of the population that includes 5% of the United States population.  Because the sample is larger, it includes all New York counties, and has less sampling error.  Smaller county estimates are likely to be within 1.3% of the true value.  Estimates of groups within the overall population should be within 3% of the true value.  But, because the data is an average of five-year data, it lags trends, since the midpoint for the time period covered for the 2015 five-year data, which includes surveys from 2011 to 2015, is 2013.

Because differences in labor force participation between counties are relatively small, it is important to recognize that their relative performance can vary from year to year because of sampling error.  For example, Schenectady County’s labor participation rate was reported as 63.7% in 2014, 61.7% in 2015, and 64.7% in 2016.  That kind of variation could reflect sample variation around the true participation level.


Change over Time

The tables showing change over time between 2005 and 1026 are based on the American Community Survey data for a single year.  Counties in the New York Metropolitan areas saw relatively wide variations in the change in the level of labor force participation between 2005 and 2016.  For example, Kings County (Bronx) saw an increase from 59.7% to 63.9% over the period, while Dutchess County saw a decrease of 6.2% from 68.4% to 62.2%.  Two thirds of the counties in the metropolitan area did better than the national average, based on the American Community Survey sample data.
Three quarters – nine of twelve counties in the New York metropolitan area had participation rates that were higher than the national average in 2016, compared with seven of twelve in 2005.

Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 2016 one year data includes 26 of 50 counties outside the New York Metropolitan area.

In upstate New York, larger metropolitan counties, like Monroe, Schenectady, Saratoga, Albany, Niagara and Erie County had smaller percentage labor force participation losses between 2005 and 2016 than did the nation .  Others, like Rensselaer County, Onondaga County and Cayuga County were near enough to the national average to be within the margin of error of the national estimate.

Many small upstate counties had larger declines than the nation as a whole.  Decreases in Broome County (5.8%), Ulster County (5.9%), St. Lawrence County (6.1%), Oswego County (6.2%), Chautauqua County (6.5%), Clinton County (6.7%), Ontario County (8.3%) and Sullivan County (9.9%) were all more than twice as great as the national average. It is also important to note that all of these counties had participation rates in 2015 that were significantly lower than the national average.  Chautauqua County was lowest at 55%. Seven upstate metropolitan areas had participation rates that were greater than the national average, compared with 18 that were below it.  In 2005, eight upstate counties had participation rates that were higher than the nation as a whole, and 17 were below.


Comparison of Labor Force Participation at the County Level

The American Community Survey five-year sample from 2011 to 2o15 used in the following section has a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 1.3% for counties, so differences of that size between counties should not be viewed as significant.  Because this data has a different time period (2011 to 2015) and sample size, the numbers differ from the discussion of change above.

Nationally, 63.7% of people 16 years old or older were in the labor force in 2015.  In New York State, participation in 2015 ranged from 67.6% in Putnam County, where 67.6% were in the labor force, to 50.8% in Hamilton County. Overall, participation levels were higher in the New York metropolitan area (65.3%) than in upstate counties (60.0%).

Two of five counties in New York City (New York, and Queens) had participation rates in 2015 that were above the national average, while three had rates that were below (Kings, Bronx and Richmond). Suburban counties in the New York City Metropolitan Area were above the national average.

Upstate, larger metropolitan counties, including counties around Albany-Schenectady-Troy, Rochester, Syracuse, and Buffalo-Niagara Falls, had labor participation rates that were higher than or within their margin of error compared with the national average.  Smaller urban areas upstate, like Utica-Rome (59.4%), Binghamton (58.7%), Jamestown (58.1%) and Elmira-Corning (56.9%) and rural counties generally had participation rates that were below the national average


Factors Related to Labor Force Participation Rates

Census data includes a number of factors that show significant relationships with levels of labor force participation.  Among the more important are:

Educational Level

At the individual level, education is a significant predictor of labor force participation.  People with a bachelor’s degree or higher are  27% more likely to be employed or seeking employment than those with have not graduated from high school.

  • Education: Population Characteristics

In 2015, there were large differences in educational attainment in the 15 counties with the highest labor market participation and the 15 with the lowest participation.  Counties with high levels of participation had 15% fewer people whose highest level of educational attainment was high school graduation than did counties with low levels of participation. Counties with high levels of participation in 2015 had 24% more people who had attained a Bachelor’s degree or higher than did the 15 counties with the lowest participation levels.

  • Labor Market Participation at Each Level of Educational Attainment

Comparing the top quarter of counties ranked by labor market participation with the bottom quarter, the largest divide in participation is for people with less than a high school degree.  On average, only 41% of those with less than a high school diploma were labor market participants in 2015 in the lowest quarter of counties ranked by participation.  In  the quarter of counties with the highest participation levels, 62% of those with less than a high school diploma participate.  At the opposite end of the educational spectrum, the difference in labor market participation levels for those with a Bachelor’s degree or more was only 3.3% – 87.1% vs. 83.3%.

 

Age

Like education, age is related to labor market participation at the individual level.  Young (16-19 years old)and old (60+) people participate at lower rates than workers of other ages.  As a result, it is not surprising that counties whose populations have higher percentages of older people have lower labor participation rates than counties with younger populations.

  • Age: Population Characteristics

This section compares labor market participation levels for two age groups:  younger workers aged 25-44 are in age groups that show the highest levels of labor market participation overall, and older people, aged 55+ who are beginning to leave the labor market.  The differences in the size of the older compared to the younger age group in the top 15 and bottom 15 counties are relatively small – in the top 15 counties, people between 25 and 44 make up 5% more of the total population than in the bottom 15 counties.  Older people, aged 55 or more, are 4% more of the total population in the lowest 15 counties than in the highest 15 counties.

  • Labor Market Participation at Each Age Range

Comparing labor force participation with age for the highest quarter of counties vs. the lowest quarter shows that participation levels differ most for those between 25 and 34 and for those who are 55 to 64 – in those cases the difference between participation levels is more than 10%.

Gender

  • Labor Market Participation:  Men vs. Women

Statewide, 81.4% of men and 72.8% of women were in the labor force in 2015.  Although difference between the labor participation rate of women living in the top quarter of counties ranked by labor participation compared with the lowest quarter of counties was 4.9%, the difference in participation rates for men in high versus low participation rates was much larger – 13.9%.

Race

For this analysis, the state has been separated into the New York City Metropolitan area and the rest of the state, because of significant differences in the levels of black/Afro-American and hispanic labor participation.  Because the number of black and Hispanic residents of low participation counties New York City Metropolitan Area is quite small, the comparisons presented here are between the top half of counties by labor market participation and the bottom half.

  • Race and Ethnicity: Population Characteristics

In the New York City Metropolitan area, the top half of counties ranked by labor market participation had populations in 2015 aged 16 or over that were 52% white, compared with 34% white for the lower participation counties.  High participation counties had 8% less black/Afro-American residents and 4.5% less Hispanic/Latino residents.

Upstate, the top half of counties ranked by labor market participation in 2015 had populations in 2015 that were 82% white, compared with 87% white in lower participation counties.  Blacks/African-Americans comprised 4.4% more of the population aged 16 or more in higher participation counties than in lower participation counties.

  • Labor Market Participation: Race and Ethnicity

In the New York City metropolitan area, participation rates for blacks/Afro-Americans, Hispanics and whites were similar in the low and high participation counties in 2015.  The difference in labor force participation in high and low participation counties was only 3.1%.  For black/Afro-American, participation is 63% in both high and low participation counties.  Hispanic and white residents participated more in the labor market in high participation counties by 3% and 4% respectively.

In upstate counties, the picture differs.  White labor market participation in high participation counties was 5.3% higher in 2015 than in low participation counties.  Hispanic labor market participation was 14% higher in high participation counties than in low participation counties.  For black/African-American residents, the difference was 25% in 2015, with participation averaging only 34% in low participation counties, compared with 59% in high participation counties.


Conclusions:

In the New York Metropolitan area, county populations aged 16 or over are large – averaging 650,000 for high participation counties, and 1.1 million for lower participation counties.  Additionally, the range of labor participation levels in the New York Metropolitan area was relatively small in 2015, and participation levels were higher overall than upstate.  In fact, the participation rate for the lowest county in the New York Metropolitan area – Staten Island – was within 1/10th of one percent of the average for upstate counties.

The range for upstate counties was much larger.  Saratoga County’s participation rate of 67.6% was the second highest in the state, while Hamilton County’s was 50.8%, almost 9% lower than the lowest county in the New York Metropolitan area.  In Upstate New York, labor force participation is higher in large metropolitan areas than in small ones.  This finding suggests that areas with smaller populations do not provide the opportunities for employment that are offered by larger ones.

Participation Differences Resulting from Differences in County Population Characteristics

Two characteristics showed consistent differences between counties with low and high participation levels – education and age.  Of the two, educational attainment showed much larger variations between counties with high participation levels and those with low levels of labor market participation.  The difference in the percentage of residents with college degrees or more is particularly striking:  45.4% in the 15 counties with the highest levels of labor market participation, and 21% in the 15 counties with the lowest levels.  In contrast, 35.5% of residents in counties with low participation levels had ended their education at high school graduation, while 21% of those in counties with high levels of participation had only graduated high school, a difference of 14%.

A portion of the variation in the educational attainment of residents between counties is likely to be a result of the differing levels of educational levels of educational attainment of young adults who were raised in those counties.  Another part stems from migration patterns of young people seeking and finding first jobs inside and outside their home counties.  Determining the relative contribution of each factor is beyond the scope of this research.

It was expected from previous research that counties having a higher proportion of older residents would have lower participation levels than those with younger residents.  But, the differences found in counties in New York State were less significant than those for educational attainment.  The percentage of residents aged 25-44 was about 5% higher in high participation counties than in low counties, while the percentage of those 55 years old or older was 4% less.

Differences in Participation within Groups in High and Low Participation Counties

There were also significant variations in labor market participation within groups in high and low participation counties.  Among the more notable were:

  • Much lower labor market participation by people who did not complete high school in the 15 lowest participation counties, compared with the highest participation counties – 41% vs. 62%.
  • Significantly lower participation by workers aged 25 to 34 and 60-74 in low participation counties: differences exceeded 10% between the bottom and top quarter of counties sorted by labor participation.
  • Much lower participation by males in the 15 lowest participation counties, compared to the 15 highest (14%) than by females (5%).
  • Very large differences in participation levels for black/Afro-American residents and Hispanic/Latino residents between upstate counties with low and high labor participation levels – 25% for black/Afro-American residents and 14% for hispanic residents.

Differences in participation within groups between counties that have low and high labor participation levels at least partially reflect the hypothesis that people have been unable to find jobs and have left the labor force.  But beyond that, the data shows that some groups are much more likely than others to be absent from the labor force in low participation counties.  These include people with little education, men, young and old workers, and blacks and Hispanics.   The low levels of participation of these groups in low participation counties probably reflect reinforcing factors, like lower average levels of education among minority group members, the decline of manufacturing industries that employed low skilled men, and low levels of demand for workers without college educations in places where there are relatively few jobs available.

These differences are not present in the New York City metropolitan area, where most counties have relatively high labor market participation levels, or in larger upstate metropolitan areas, like Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany, but they are significant is smaller urban areas like Utica, Binghamton and Elmira, and in rural areas of New York State.

To the extent that New York’s development policies can be based on need, one focus should be on upstate’s small urban areas and rural communities.  If smaller counties are to see more labor market participation by their residents, the state must help them address the barriers that have discouraged participation by less educated people, men, blacks/Afro-Americans and Latinos, and find ways to generate jobs that retain college graduates.  At the same time, policy makers concerned about the well-being of New York residents must recognize that some policies that would help residents of low participation counties access jobs could increase out-migration to locations with more employment opportunities.  The ability of low participation counties in small metropolitan areas and rural locations to create the resources needed to diversify their economies to include occupations that match the qualifications of residents are likely to be limited, because of the significant advantages offered by locations that have larger labor pools.




School Segregation is Increasing in New York’s Cities and Suburbs

Recent articles in the New York Times and The Nation have focused on efforts to resegregate schools in the South, by carving new predominantly white school districts out of larger county-wide school districts that are predominantly black and Hispanic.  The articles examined a recent federal court decision that permitted the creation of the Gardendale School District near Birmingham, Alabama.  The new district is 75% white, in a county school district that has a majority of black and Hispanic students.

In 1954, the United States Supreme Court, in Brown vs. Board of Education, outlawed the creation of segregated school systems by law.  While first efforts to combat segregation focused on legally created barriers to integration in the South, later, courts ordered busing to combat segregation in northern school districts, like Boston.  These efforts were met with fierce resistance from parents who did not want their children to be bused to schools that had large minority student populations outside their neighborhoods .

Resistance to school integration has been has been widespread.  While legally created separate schools in the same school system for white and black students have been eliminated, opposition to efforts to combat segregation based on residential patterns has been widespread and largely successful.  Today, the schools attended by black and Hispanic students typically have far higher concentrations of minority students than those attended by white students.  While segregation in the South was the result of laws that created separate school systems for white and black students, today much of the segregation results from the concentration of black and Hispanic students in cities with majority black and Hispanic populations.

In an earlier post, I examined the growth of segregation of black and Hispanic students in metropolitan areas in New York State.  In this post, I compare the concentration of black and Hispanic students with white students in schools in cities and suburbs in New York metropolitan areas.

Changes in School Enrollment 

In upstate metropolitan areas, and in the suburbs in the New York metropolitan area, enrollments of black and Hispanic students have increased substantially between 1990-91 and 2014-15 – by more than 50,000 upstate and by 140,000 in the New York suburbs.

  • Black student enrollments increased in upstate metropolitan areas grew by 23,000, while Hispanic enrollments grew by 32,000.
  • In Westchester, Orange and Rockland counties in the New York metropolitan area, black student enrollments grew by 15,000 and Hispanic enrollments grew by 45,000.
  • In New York City, black student enrollments decreased by 113,000 while Hispanic enrollments increased by 68,000.

White student enrollments decreased significantly both upstate (by 125,000) and in the New York metropolitan area (by 113,000).  Nationally, enrollments of black and Hispanic students increased by 7.4 million, between 1994 and 2014 (1990 data is not available) while white student enrollments decreased by 4.2 million.

Overall, school enrollments increased in New York City and its suburbs between 1990-91 and 2014-15, while they decreased in upstate metropolitan areas. Nationally, enrollments increased 12.6% between 1995 and 2014.

In percentage terms, school enrollments nationally were 49.2% white and 42.1% black and Hispanic in 2014-15.

  • Upstate metropolitan areas (66.3% white) and New York City suburbs (55.2% white) had higher percentages of white student enrollments than the nation, while New York City had higher percentages of black and Hispanic students.
  • National level data for 1990 showed a student population of 27.2% black and hispanic students, and 69.4% white students.

By 2014-15 the composition of student populations in schools had changed significantly from the 1990’s, nationally, in upstate New York metropolitan areas and in the New York metropolitan area, with large increases in the percentage of black and Hispanic students. New York City was the only exception – black and Hispanic students decreased as a percentage of the total.

Increasing Minority Student Concentrations in City Schools

In cities in upstate metropolitan areas, black and Hispanic student populations grew substantially as a percentage of the total – by nearly 25% on average.  Black and Hispanic student populations as a percentage of the total grew in suburbs as well, but the growth was much smaller – only 6.4% on average.  In the Orange-Rockland-Westchester portion of the New  York City metropolitan area, the growth of black and Hispanic students as a percentage of the total was about equal in cities and suburbs – 16% on average.

Most upstate cities have student populations that are majority black and Hispanic, while most suburban areas in upstate metropolitan areas have student bodies that are less than 10% black and hispanic.  On average, the gap in black and hispanic student percentages between upstate cities and suburbs grew from 44% to 63%.

Schools attended by Typical Black and Hispanic Students Differ from those attended by Typical White Students

This section compares the racial and ethnic composition of schools attended by typical black and Hispanic students with those attended by white students in 2014-15.  It does so by finding the percentage of black/Hispanic students at schools for a median student in each racial/ethnic group.  Computing the median involves sorting all the students in a group (black/Hispanic or white) in a metropolitan area by the percentage of minority students in the schools that they attend, and finding the percentage of black/Hispanic students in the school attended by a student who is at the exact middle of the sort.  Half of the white or Hispanic/black students would be attending schools with an equal or higher percentage of Hispanic/black students, while half would have an equal or lower percentage.

The data shows that in both cities and suburbs upstate, black and Hispanic students typically attend schools with higher concentrations of black and Hispanic students than do white students.

  • For example, in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls MSA, black and Hispanic students living in cities typically attend schools where 78% of the students are black or Hispanic.
  • White students in those cities typically attend schools whose student bodies are 46% black – a difference of 32%.
  • In other upstate Metropolitan areas, the concentration of black and Hispanic students in city schools ranges from no higher in the city of Binghamton to 20% higher in Utica-Rome.

Within suburban school districts in New York’s metropolitan areas, black and Hispanic students typically attend schools that have higher percentages of black and Hispanic students.

  • In the Rochester metropolitan area, black and Hispanic students living outside Rochester typically attend schools with 24% black and Hispanic students, while white students typically attend schools with 9% black and Hispanic students.
  • In other upstate metropolitan areas, the differences ranged from 2% to 11%.

Since most black and Hispanic students in metropolitan areas live in cities, while most white students live outside them, it is useful to compare the percentage of black and Hispanic students in schools typically attended by black and Hispanic students in cities with the percentage of black and Hispanic students in schools attended by typical white students outside cities.  Here, the contrast is stronger.

  • For example, In the Albany-Schenectady-Troy metropolitan area, a typical black or Hispanic student living in a city would attended a school that had 67.5% black and Hispanic students.
  • In contrast, typical white students living outside Albany, Schenectady and Troy attended schools that had 5.1% black and Hispanic students, a difference of 62.4%.

Differences were large in other upstate metropolitan areas, as well.  The difference in the percentage of black and Hispanic students in city schools attended by typical black and Hispanic students and schools outside cities attended by typical white students was 80.6% in the Rochester MSA, and 73% in the Buffalo-Niagara Falls MSA.

Conclusions

Since the 1954 Brown vs. Board of Education Supreme Court decision, it has been illegal to maintain separate schools for minority students and white students in a school district.  But, efforts to create racial balance in schools in cities and metropolitan areas in New York state and elsewhere have largely been unsuccessful.

In fact, the data shows that over the past 25 years, changes in living patterns have seen large increases in black and Hispanic populations in central cities in New York state, but relatively little change in areas outside them.  As a result, because school districts in New York State often follow city and town boundaries, black and Hispanic students are increasingly concentrated in city schools.

  • School districts in cities in upstate metropolitan areas have seen substantial increases in the percentage of students who are black and Hispanic – from 47.6% to 72.4% between 1990-91 and 2014-15.
  • In contrast outside Upstate cities, the average percentage of black and Hispanic students only grew from 2.8% to 9.2%.

The increasing concentration of black and Hispanic students within cities is not the full explanation of their increasing segregation.  Within cities and outside them, black and Hispanic students are likely to attend schools with higher percentages of black and Hispanic students than are whites.  This is largely the result of residential housing segregation within communities in our metropolitan areas.  As a result, the difference between the racial and ethnic composition of schools typically attended by black and Hispanic students and white students has grown larger – in five of seven metropolitan areas typical black and Hispanic students attended schools that had 65% or more black and Hispanic students, while in five of seven metropolitan areas typical white students attended schools whose populations had 5.1% or less black and Hispanic students.

The growth of racial segregation in New York schools is paralleled by its growth nationwide:  The U. S. General Accounting Office found in 2016 that “Over time, there has been a large increase in schools that are the most isolated by poverty and race. From school years 2000-01 to 2013-14 (most recent data available), both the percentage of K-12 public schools that were high poverty and comprised of mostly Black or Hispanic students (H/PBH) and the students attending these schools grew significantly. In these schools 75 to 100 percent of the students were eligible for free or reduced-price lunch, and 75 to 100 percent of the students were Black or Hispanic.”

Although there are significant potential benefits from schools that are more representative of the diversity of the population as a whole, the barriers to change are substantial.  While New York state has not seen the creation of white enclave school districts carved out of larger majority minority districts, the existing structure of local school districts has a similar effect.

There is no silver bullet that will remedy the growth of segregated schools in New York state, or elsewhere.  Remedies tried in the past, like school busing, have been very unpopular, and have generally failed.  Historically, federal housing policies in the 20th century supported racial segregation.  Similarly, suburban zoning laws and resistance to low and moderate income multi-family housing continue to play a role in preventing minority residents from living in them.  In the current political environment, with an administration in Washington, D. C. that is not supportive of federal intervention to promote integration, segregation in our schools is likely to continue to increase.

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Note:  For the Orange-Rockland-Westchester portion of the New York City Metropolitan Area, cities are:  Mount Vernon, New Rochelle, White Plains and Yonkers.




More Regional Diversity but a Larger Racial/Ethnic Divide in New York Schools

This post examines changes in the ethnic and racial compositions of kindergarten through twelfth grade schools in New York State metropolitan areas over the past 25 years.  During that period, the student population, like the general population has become more diverse, with the percentage of students identified as white decreasing, while minority group members, particularly Hispanics, have become a larger proportion of the total population.  But, has the increased diversity of the overall student population been reflected in individual schools?  The data show that although New York’s metropolitan regions are more diverse than they were in the past, the gap in racial and ethnic composition in our schools is larger.

New York Metropolitan Areas and the Nation as a Whole are Racially and Ethnically more Diverse than in 1990

Between 1990 and 2015, the percentage of the national population that identified itself as white decreased from more than 75% to 62%, while Hispanics increased from 9% to 17%.  The number of people who identified as Asian increased from 2.8% to 5.1%. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 1990 Decennial Census.) Upstate metropolitan areas are much less diverse than the nation as a whole.  Smaller metropolitan areas had very small minority group populations – the Binghamton metropolitan area was 87% white in 2015, while the Utica area was 86% white. Larger upstate metropolitan areas were also less diverse than the nation in 2015.  Buffalo was 78.5% white, while Rochester was 77.4% white.  In contrast, in the New York City metropolitan area, white residents were less than half of the population – 44.4% – while Hispanics were nearly one-quarter of the total.

Student Populations in the United States and in New York Metropolitan Areas are more Diverse than in 1990

The kindergarten through grade twelve population has shown a greater demographic shift than the population as a whole at the national level between the 1990-1991 school year and 2014-2015.  The percentage of students who identified as white decreased by 17.3%, from 69.4% to 52.1%.  The Hispanic population increased by 13.1%, while the percentage of students identified as Asian increased from 3.2% to 5.1%. Source:  National Center for Educational Statistics – Elementary and Secondary Information System.

Compared to the nearly even split between white and minority group students nationally, upstate metropolitan areas are relatively less diverse – particularly smaller metropolitan areas, like Binghamton, Utica and Syracuse.  But even these areas have seen significant increases in the percentage of students who are black, Hispanic and Asian since 1990.

  • Small metropolitan areas, like Binghamton and Utica-Rome, were about 80% white in 2014-2015, and had black and hispanic populations that each comprised less than 10% of the total.  In 1990-1991, these metropolitan areas were more than 90% white.
  • Medium sized metropolitan areas had k-12 student populations that were between 65% (Buffalo) and 75% (Syracuse) white in 2014-2015.  In 1990-91 the percentage of white students was 15% to 20% higher in each of these metropolitan areas.  In these metropolitan areas, the percentage of students who identified as black and Hispanic increased by about 10%.
  • In New York City, in 1990-91, the school population was 18.9% white in 1990-91, 37.6% black and 34.5% Hispanic.  By 2014-15 the white population had decreased to 15.5% of the total, while the black population decreased to 25.1%. The Hispanic population in New York schools increased to 40.9%, while the Asian population grew from 7.8% to 18.1%.
  • Suburban areas around New York City on Long Island, and Westchester, Orange and Rockland Counties had large decreases in the percentage of white students in school populations – more than 20%.  These areas saw large increases in Hispanic students, who increased by 15% to 17% as a percentage of school populations.

In the next section, I look at the question of whether the increased ethnic and racial diversity of student populations in metropolitan areas is associated with decreased racial and ethnic segregation in schools.

The Racial and Ethnic Composition of Schools attended by Whites, Blacks and Hispanics Differed more in 2015 than in 1990

This section compares the racial and ethnic composition of schools attended by typical black and Hispanic students with those attended by white students in 1990 and 2015.  It does so by finding the percentage of black/Hispanic students at a school for a median student in each racial/ethnic group.  Computing the median involves sorting all the students in a group (black/Hispanic or white) in a metropolitan area by the percentage of minority students in the schools that they attend, and finding the percentage of black/Hispanic students in the school attended by a student who is at the exact middle of the sort.  Half of the white or Hispanic/black students would be attending schools with an equal or higher percentage of Hispanic/black students, while half would have an equal or lower percentage.

The difference between the percentage of minority students in schools attended by typical white students compared to typical black/Hispanic students increased between 1990-1991 and 2014-2015, with one exception (New York City).  Despite the increase of Hispanic and black students from less than 10% (18% in Rochester) to between 20% and 30% of the student population in upstate metropolitan areas, typical white students attend schools with Hispanic/black populations that make up about 5% of the total.  In contrast, black and hispanic students typically attended schools in 2015 where black and Hispanic students make up more than 50% of the population.

Also of concern is the fact that the racial/ethnic gap between schools that typical white and Hispanic/black students attend increased between 1990-1991 and 2014-2015.

 

  • In the Albany-Schenectady-Troy metropolitan area, in 1990-1991, typical white students would have attended schools with 2% black and Hispanic students. Typical black and Hispanic students attended schools with 38% black students in that year.
  • In 2014-2015 typical white students attended schools with 5.8% black/Hispanic students, while typical black and Hispanic students attended schools with 55% black/Hispanic students.
  • The gap between the schools attended by typical white and typical black/Hispanic students increased from 36% to 49%.

Other upstate metropolitan areas had increases in the gap between white and black/Hispanic percentages as well:

  • In the Binghamton MSA, in 1990-1991 median white students attended schools that were 1.6% black/Hispanic while median black and Hispanic students attended schools that were 10.4% black/Hispanic.  In 2015, whites typically attended schools that were 4.7% black/Hispanic, while blacks and Hispanics typically attended schools that were 31.4% black/Hispanic.  The gap increased from 8.8% to 26.7%
  • In Buffalo-Niagara Falls, in 1990-91 median white students attended schools that were 1.4% black/Hispanic. Typical black/Hispanic students attended schools that were 54.9% black/Hispanic. In 2014-15 typical white students attended schools that were 5.3% black/Hispanic, while median black and Hispanic students attended schools that were 63% black/Hispanic. The gap increased from 53.3% to 57.7%
  • In the Rochester MSA in 1990-1991, typical white students attended schools that were 4.2% black/Hispanic, while black and Hispanic pupils attended schools that were 67.3% black/Hispanic.  In 2014-2015 the comparable numbers were 9.2% and 82.7%.  The gap increased from 63.1% to 73.5%
  • In Syracuse in 1990-1991 median white students attended schools that were 1.6% black/Hispanic, while typical black and Hispanic students attended schools that were 43.4% black/Hispanic.  In 2014-15 the percentages were 5.5% and 52.7%.  The gap increased from 41.8% to 47.2%
  • In Utica-Rome, in 1990-1991, typical white students attended schools that were 1.1% black/Hispanic, while median black and Hispanic students attended schools that were 23.3% black/Hispanic.  In 2014-15 the numbers were 3.3% for white students and 61.7% for black and Hispanic students.  The gap increased from 22.2% to 58.4%

Suburban counties in the New York City Metropolitan area saw similar changes:

  • In Nassau and Suffolk Counties in 1990-1991, typical white students attended schools at which black and Hispanic students made up 5.8% of the population.  In 1990-91, black and Hispanic students attended schools which were 50% black/Hispanic.
  • In 2014-15, white students typically attended schools that had 14.5% black/Hispanic students.  Typical Black/Hispanic students schools that were 64.8% black/Hispanic
  • The racial/ethnic gap increased by 6.1%.
  • In Westchester, Orange and Rockland Counties, in 1980-81, typical white students attended schools that were 7.1% black/Hispanic, while typical black/Hispanic students attended schools that were 49.9% black/Hispanic.
  • In 2014-2015, in those counties, typical white students attended schools that were 19.4% black/Hispanic, while typical black/Hispanic students attended schools that were 71.6% black/Hispanic.
  • The racial/ethnic gap in Westchester, Orange and Rockland counties increased by 9.4%.

New York City differed from other locations in New York state in that the differences in the racial/ethnic composition of schools attended by white students and black/Hispanic students has stayed constant at about 60% in 1990-91 and 2014-15.

Conclusions

Although our nation is often characterized as a melting pot that has absorbed many ethnicities and races, black/Hispanic students increasingly attend schools that are primarily black/Hispanic, while white students continue to attend schools that are overwhelmingly white.  Over the period between 1990-1991 and 2014-15, the gap between the schools typically attended by whites and those attended by blacks and Hispanics increased – in schools attended by median black and Hispanic students, the percentage of black and Hispanic students increased more than it did in schools attended by median white students.

This is important because black and Hispanic residents and whites have relatively little interaction in their neighborhoods, and in the schools that their children attend.  Cities and the schools within them continue to see large decreases in white populations.  City minority populations are stable or increasing, while suburban communities remain overwhelmingly white.  Housing segregation is reinforced by the fact that average incomes of blacks and Hispanics are substantially lower than white residents, so that relatively high suburban housing costs are a barrier to suburban housing choices.

Economic and residential separation is strongly rooted in New York and the United States. Causes include discriminatory government housing policies and non-governmental practices that denied black people access to home ownership in the growing suburbs of the post-World War II era,  historically lower average levels of minority educational attainment, and lower black and Hispanic incomes at the same levels of educational attainment as whites.

The concentration of minority students in schools with high percentages of minority students has negative consequences for minority students, largely because these schools typically have high concentrations of low-income students.  Economically disadvantaged students who attend schools with relatively few disadvantaged students do better on evaluations of student performance than those who attend schools with high concentrations of disadvantaged students (see this, and this).   The fact that black and hispanic students increasingly attend schools with high concentrations of minority students should be of concern.

Because white students in New York typically attend schools that have few black and Hispanics attending them, they do not gain the benefit of exposure to other cultures. Researchers have found that diverse schools promote reductions in levels of racial and ethnic prejudice, stereotyping and fears of “others” and that all students, including white students attending diverse schools, show “higher achievement in mathematics, science, language and reading.”

My next post will compare changes in minority and white student populations in cities and suburbs in New York state.




The Shrinking Middle Class in New York State – Cities and Suburbs

Pew Research has been releasing a series of studies showing that the percentage of Americans who have middle class incomes has been declining.  The most recent of these is  America’s Shrinking Middle Class:  A Close Look at Changes Within Metropolitan Areas.  The report received extensive coverage in many newspapers, including the New York Times.  It concluded that in nine of ten metropolitan areas, the middle class lost ground – from 61% of the population in 1971 to 49.5% in 2014.

The Pew findings are a result of the widely reported increase in income inequality that has developed in the United States since about 1980.

household-incomes-mean-real

Source:  Doug Short – U. S. Household Incomes: A 47 Year Perspective.

The data shows that income gains were concentrated among those with higher incomes. In fact, middle to low income households have seen no significant real (inflation adjusted) income gains since 1967. And, since 2000, real household incomes have stagnated at all levels.  Because income gains between different income groups have diverged, the percentage of Americans who live in the middle class has declined.

The Shrinking Middle Class in New York State’s Metropolitan Areas

Pew found that in New York Sate, each metropolitan area studied saw a decline in the percentage of residents whose incomes were classified as middle class.  For the purpose of their study, middle class was defined as the range between two thirds of the median household income and twice the median.  Albany-Schenectady-Troy showed the largest decrease- 5%.  On average, the percentage or residents with middle class incomes decreased by 3.9%.

Five of the seven metropolitan areas saw increases in the percentage of residents with high incomes – Albany-Schenectady-Troy, Glens Falls, New York-Newark-Jersey City, Syracuse and Utica. Four of seven metropolitan areas saw increases in the percentage of low income residents, with Buffalo-Niagara Falls showing the largest increase – 8.3%.

Change In Income Distribution
New York State Metros 2000-2014
Low Middle High
Albany-Schenectady-Troy  (1.90)  (5.00)  7.00
Buffalo-Niagara Falls  8.30  (7.40)  (0.90)
Glens Falls  0.10  (3.30)  3.00
New York-Newark-Jersey City  (0.10)  (2.60)  2.70
Rochester  3.00  (2.90)  (0.20)
Syracuse  (1.20)  (2.10)  3.30
Utica  0.50  (3.80)  3.30

Source:  Pew Research Center – America’s Shrinking Middle Class:  A Close Look at Changes within Metropolitan Areas.  

The 3.9% average decrease in middle class residents in upstate metropolitan areas was very close to the 4% decrease that Pew found nationally.  But the Pew data does not examine the way the increase in income inequality affects city residents compared to residents of suburban areas around them.  This is a significant issue because cities in New York state have become increasingly separated economically from their suburbs.

For example, in upstate New York in 1969, cities had rates of poverty that were only slightly higher than for the state as a whole.  But, by 2013, most upstate cities had rates of poverty that were at least two times the state rate.

Percent of Residents Living in Poverty
1969 1989 1999 2013
Albany 14.20% N/A 21.50% 25.30%
Buffalo 15.20% 25.60% 26.60% 31.40%
Rochester 12.40% 23.50% 25.90% 33.90%
Syracuse 14.10% 22.70% 27.30% 36.50%
Schenectady N/A N/A 20.80% 24.80%
Troy N/A N/A 19.10% 27.30%
Utica N/A N/A 24.50% 31.70%
New York State 11.10% 13.00% 14.60% 15.60%

(Data for cities with populations of less than 100,000 were not available for years before 1999).

Inflation Adjusted Median Household Income Change in Cities and Suburbs

The same dynamic played out with respect to household incomes in cities and their suburbs.  Between 1999 and 2014, the median inflation adjusted household income for residents of 14 New York cities declined, while those of households outside those cities in the counties within which they were located increased in all but two cases. Moreover, those cities with poorer populations saw greater income losses on average, while those suburbs with higher incomes saw larger income gains.

median income

(Income adjusted by CPI-U for 1999 and 2014 – Northeast Urban Class B&C Metropolitan Areas).

Several cities saw particularly large adjusted median income declines between 1999 and 2014.  Adjusted household income declined by 23% in Elmira and Newburgh, and 20% in Rochester.  Overall, households in poorer cities lost 15% of inflation adjusted income, while those in wealthier cities lost 9.2% of income between 1999 and 2014.

In contrast, suburban areas saw gains, on average, with suburban areas around wealthier cities seeing increases of 6.3% on average, while those around poorer cities saw increases of 4.5% on average.  Household income in suburbs outside Elmira increased by 13%, compared to the 23% decline in the city.  In suburbs around Syracuse, adjusted household income increased by 10%, while in the city, it decreased by 9%.

Chautauqua County outside Jamestown, Duchess County, outside Poughkeepsie, Monroe County, outside Rochester, and Ulster County outside Kingston saw declines in inflation adjusted median household income.  But, even here, central cities far worse than suburbs.  In Rochester, adjusted median household income declined by 20%, while Rochester suburbs decreased by 3.8%.  In Poughkeepsie, real median household income declined by 11.4%, while in the rest of Dutchess County, median income declined by 3.5%. Jamestown saw a 15% decline, while the remainder of Chautauqua County saw a decrease of 2.3%.

Inflation Adjusted Income Change in New York City

nyc household

Three boroughs in New York City saw declines in inflation adjusted household income between 1999 and 2014 – Bronx with a decline of 15%, Queens with a decrease of 7.7%  and Staten Island with a decrease of 7.9%. Manhattan saw an increase, while Brooklyn’s income was stable.

Middle Income Shrinkage in Cities and Suburbs

 

middle income

Both cities and suburbs had smaller percentages of middle income residents in 2014 than in 1999, but started from different positions.  In cities in 1999, on average only 43% of residents were middle class, compared with 55% in suburban areas.  In 2014, 38% of city residents on average were middle class compared with 50% in suburbs.  So, both cities and suburbs lost the same percentage of middle income residents.

Implications

The decline of middle income households is a significant concern, but, even more significant are the overall growth of inequality, and the overall decline in real household income that has taken place this century.

For the United States as a whole, by 2014, inflation adjusted median household income had decreased by 8% from 1999.  While more recent data suggests that incomes have recovered since 2014, the lack of growth in median household incomes is a significant concern.

adjusted income

Source:  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

But the impact of income stagnation has been unequal.  The chart and table below show that the impact of recent income declines has been greatest on lower income groups.

household-incomes-growth-real-annotated

household-income-real-decline-from-peak-table

Source:  Doug Short – U. S. Household Incomes: A 47 Year Perspective

Because of the concentration of low income residents in cities, city households saw significant declines in inflation adjusted income over the past fifteen years – averaging a decrease of 12%, compared with an increase of 6% in suburban areas.  As a result, the average difference in household incomes between cities and suburbs increased from 46% in 1999 to 74% in 2014.

Our society has become increasingly divided economically over the past 35 years.  More recently, the U. S. economy has not provided income growth for the country’s residents.  In New York State, the impact of these changes has been significantly different for suburban residents, who have been largely insulated from these economic problems, and for city residents who have suffered from them.

 

 




More on Race, Income and Student Achievement

A few months ago, I wrote about the link between economic disadvantage and poor student performance.  I looked at the performance of students on the State’s annual student assessment for grades 3 to 8, and found that the percentage of economically disadvantaged students in schools and school districts accounted for about three quarters of the difference in performance.

performance vs disadvantaged

The data showed that a ten percent increase in students who were economically disadvantaged was associated with a six percent decrease in performance on the statewide assessment.

The New York Times, on April 29, published an article “Money, Race and Success: How Your School District Compares” that reports on a study that was based on national level data from the National Assessment of Educational Progress.  The article points out that:

“We’ve long known of the persistent and troublesome academic gap between white students and their black and Hispanic peers in public schools.

We’ve long understood the primary reason, too: A higher proportion of black and Hispanic children come from poor families. A new analysis of reading and math test score data from across the country confirms just how much socioeconomic conditions matter.

Children in the school districts with the highest concentrations of poverty score an average of more than four grade levels below children in the richest districts.”

The data for the analysis comes from “The Geography of Racial/Ethnic Test Score Gaps” by Sean F. Reardon, Demetra Kalogrides and Kenneth Shores of Stanford.

In “School Segregation and Student Performance Gaps,” Reardon argues:

“Although it is clear that racial segregation is linked to academic achievement gaps, the mechanisms underlying this link have been debated since Coleman published his eponymous 1966 report. In this paper, I examine sixteen distinct measures of segregation to determine which is most strongly associated with academic achievement gaps. I find very clear evidence that one aspect of segregation in particular—the disparity in average school poverty rates between white and black students’ schools—is consistently the single most powerful correlate of achievement gaps, a pattern that holds in both bivariate and multivariate analyses.”

My own research showed that upstate cities have increasingly high poverty rates – in Syracuse and Rochester, for example, more than 50% of children under 18 live in poverty, and that minority group members living in upstate cities have far lower median incomes than white city residents or of white suburban residents.

Median Family Income – 2014
Upstate Cities
  Black Hispanic White
Albany $39,077 $29,268 $84,422
Buffalo $29,155 $21,803 $55,516
Rochester $28,752 $23,717 $56,178
Utica $22,975 $18,149 $51,043
Syracuse $27,902 $23,438 $57,246
Troy $21,563 $20,061 $60,843
Schenectady $27,338 $25,111 $62,818
Median Family Income – 2014
Outside Cities
  Black Hispanic White
Albany $67,400 $78,594 $91,693
Buffalo $39,001 $44,463 $77,996
Rochester $44,716 $44,179 $81,432
Utica $50,785 $34,792 $70,457
Syracuse $48,187 $57,778 $80,714
Troy $47,521 $67,381 $84,992
Schenectady $65,062 $52,505 $88,674

Median family incomes for blacks in most upstate cities were between $20,000 and $30,000 in 2013, while white families in suburbs around most upstate cities had median incomes of between $80,000 and $90,000.

The increasing separation of residents of upstate and suburbs by income is one of the most dramatic changes in the past half century in the way upstate residents live.  In 1969, 14.2% of the residents of the City of Rochester, and 14.1% of the residents of Syracuse lived in poverty, compared with 11.1% for New York State as a whole.  By 2013, 33.9% of Rochester residents lived in poverty, while in Syracuse, 36.5% lived in poverty.  The poverty rate for New  York State was 15.6%.  So, New York State saw in increase in the percentage of residents living in poverty of 4.5%, while residents of Rochester had an increase of 19.7%, and 25.4%.

Percentage of Residents Living in Poverty
1969 1989 1999 2013
Albany 14.2%  N/A 21.5% 25.3%
Buffalo 15.2% 25.6% 26.6% 31.4%
Rochester 12.4% 23.5% 25.9% 33.9%
Syracuse 14.1% 22.7% 27.3% 36.5%
Schenectady N/A N/A 20.8% 24.8%
Troy N/A N/A 19.1% 27.3%
Utica N/A N/A 24.5% 31.7%
New York State 11.1% 13.0% 14.6% 15.6%

(Data for cities with populations of less than 100,000 were not available for years before 1999).

Recent studies, like the national study by Reardon and other Stanford researchers, show strong associations between the concentration of black and hispanic residents in areas with high concentrations of poverty and poor student performance.

Unless we address the factors that lead to the growth of concentrated poverty in upstate central cities, and the continued separation of white, hispanic and black residents in upstate metropolitan areas, how can we effectively combat the persistent economic differences between black, Hispanic and white residents of upstate metropolitan areas, and the cycle of intergenerational poverty?




Racial Divisions in Upstate Metropolitan Neighborhoods

In my last posting I described income differences in 800 upstate metropolitan neighborhoods in Albany, Erie, Monroe, Oneida, Onondaga, Rensselaer and Schenectady Counties.  The data comes from the United States Census Bureau which divides the nation into census tracts, the most detailed level publically tabulated. Overall, there are 73,000 census tracts nationally, averaging 4,200 residents each.

While there are significant differences in incomes, unemployment and poverty among upstate neighborhoods, the differences in racial patterns, particularly between people identifying as black or African-American and those identifying as white are much stronger, and the racial differences are strongly related to neighborhood economic conditions.

Racial Divisions – Two Neighborhood Types

Census Tracts with High Concentrations of Black Residents

Upstate Metropolitan Census Tracts – 2014
Sorted by Percentage of Black/African-American Residents
High Concentration Average Concentration Low Concentration
  30% of of all Black Residents 40% of all Black Residents 30% of all Black Residents
%Black 83.4% 38.6% 4.4%
%Hispanic 5.0% 16.7% 3.8%
%White 8.6% 36.2% 86.4%
Black Residents 105203 143812 109430
All Residents 126153 373030 2471015
Low Income 64.0% 58.6% 29.5%
Medium Income 31.4% 34.8% 47.7%
High Income 4.6% 6.6% 22.8%
Mean Household Income $37,238 $44,171 $76,175
% Unemployment 19.8% 14.1% 6.7%
% Poverty 34.0% 32.4% 6.8%

More than eight of every ten residents of neighborhoods with high concentrations of black residents identify as black or African-American, even though only 12% of all residents of upstate metropolitan census tracts were black.  Residents in typical neighborhoods with high concentrations of black residents had very few residents identified as white, not Hispanic – only eight in one hundred.  About five percent of residents with high concentrations of black residents identify as Hispanic, about the same percentage as upstate urban neighborhoods, overall.

When average concentration neighborhoods are added to the picture, 70% of residents live in neighborhoods that average 50% black or African-American.  These neighborhoods have concentrations of black residents that are more than four times the average for all upstate neighborhoods.  When combined with those who identify as Hispanics, people who live in neighborhoods that have average concentrations of black/African-American residents are more than 60% minority residents.

Note that the income, unemployment and poverty levels of neighborhoods that had average levels of black residents were only slightly better than those of neighborhoods with high levels.  For neighborhoods with high and average concentrations of black residents, mean household incomes in 2014 were only slightly higher ($40,176) than those for residents of neighborhoods with high concentrations of black residents ($37,238).

blacklo

In neighborhoods with high concentrations of black residents, 64% of households had low incomes – almost as high a percentage as was found in neighborhoods with high concentrations of low income residents.  About three in ten residents of these neighborhoods had middle incomes, while about 5% had high incomes.

Typical residents of neighborhoods with high concentrations of black residents, had incomes of  $37,200 in 2014, only slightly higher than the average income in neighborhoods with high concentrations of low income residents.  Similarly, the concentration of poverty in neighborhoods with high concentrations of black residents averaged 37%, like that of low income neighborhoods, which averaged 37%.

Unemployment among residents of neighborhoods with high concentrations of black residents was nearly 20% in 2014, the highest of any of the groups in this analysis.

Census Tracts with High Percentages of Hispanic Residents

Upstate Metropolitan Census Tracts – 2014
Sorted by Percentage of Hispanic Residents
  High Concentration Average Concentration Low Concentration
  30% of all Hispanic Residents 40% of all Hispanic Residents 30% of all Hispanic Residents
%Hispanic 29.8% 9.2% 2.4%
%Black 35.8% 20.8% 7.3%
%White 27.5% 62.3% 85.5%
Hispanic Residents  48,205  65,181  50,189
All Residents  161,994  704,899  2,103,305
Low Income 65.5% 46.4% 28.4%
Medium Income 30.2% 41.8% 47.7%
High Income 4.3% 11.8% 23.9%
Mean Household Income $39,943 $52,818 $78,526
% Unemployment 18.0% 10.1% 6.6%
% Poverty 38.4% 19.7% 6.2%

Only 5.5% of residents of upstate metropolitan census tracts are of Hispanic descent.  So, even in those places where there are relatively high Hispanic concentrations, they make up only a minority of residents.  In the neighborhoods with the highest concentrations of Hispanic residents, on average 30% of residents were Hispanic, compared with 36% Black/African-American and 27.5% White (not Hispanic).

hisplo

Like people who identify as Black/African American, Hispanic households most often have low incomes (66%).  About 30% of Hispanic households in upstate urban areas are middle income, while 4% are high income households.  When neighborhoods including high and average concentrations of Hispanics are combined – 70% of all Hispanics, their average income reached $49,642, lower than the average income of those who identify is white, not Hispanic, but higher than that of people who identify as black or African American (40,176).

Neighborhoods with high concentrations of Hispanics had high levels of unemployment (18%).  The concentration of poverty in neighborhoods with high concentrations of Hispanic residents (38.4%) was slightly higher than that of low income neighborhoods and those with high concentrations of black/African-American residents.

Census Tracts with High Concentrations of White Residents

Upstate Metropolitan Census Tracts – 2014
Sorted by Percentage of White Residents
High Concentration Medium Concentration Low Concentration
  30% of all White Residents 40% of all White Residents 30% of all White Residents
%White 96.2% 89.8% 55.8%
%Black 0.7% 2.9% 25.6%
%Hispanic 1.5% 3.1% 9.6%
White Residents  662,506  922,262  707,720
All Residents  688,680  1,014,263  1,267,255
Low Income 24.7% 26.2% 46.7%
Medium Income 49.5% 48.9% 40.3%
High Income 25.8% 24.9% 13.0%
Mean Household Income $80,921 $80,710 $55,793
% Unemployment 6.3% 5.9% 10.6%
% Poverty 4.4% 4.7% 20.5%

Neighborhoods with high concentrations of white residents look very different from those with high concentrations of black or Hispanic residents, and from the average of all residents.  Thirty percent of all white (non-Hispanic) residents live in neighborhoods that average 96% white, with less than one percent of black residents, and 1.5% of Hispanic residents.  Overall, 77% of residents of upstate metropolitan areas are white, 12% are black and 5.5% Hispanic.

Whitelo

They also differ significantly in their economic characteristics.  About 75% of residents of neighborhoods with high concentrations of white residents have middle or high incomes.  For black and Hispanic residents, the corresponding percentage is 35%.  The median household income for neighborhoods with 70% of all white residents of upstate urban neighborhoods is more than $80,000, compared with $40,176 for neighborhoods with 70% of all black residents, and 49,642 for neighborhoods with 70% of Hispanic residents.

The average unemployment percentage in 2014 in neighborhoods with high concentrations of white residents was 6.3%, compared with 20% in black neighborhoods, and 18% in neighborhoods with high concentrations of Hispanic residents.  Very few residents of neighborhoods with high concentrations of white residents lived in poverty in 2014 – 4%.  For black neighborhoods, the percentage was 34% and for neighborhoods with high concentrations of Hispanics, the percentage was 38%.

Concentrations of Residents by Neighborhood Types

Chart 1.

black hispanic white 

Chart one shows that blacks and Hispanics are particularly overrepresented in the upstate metropolitan neighborhoods where they lived in 2014.  65% of blacks lived in neighborhoods with more than twice the overall percentage of blacks in upstate metropolitan counties.  Forty percent of blacks live in neighborhoods with more than four times their overall percentage.  Forty percent of Hispanics live in neighborhoods where they are more than twice their overall percentage in upstate metropolitan counties.

Chart 2

ratio of races

 

Chart two shows the concentration of the group populations in each census tract, sorted by the concentration of group population.  It shows that black and Hispanic populations are far more concentrated than low income, high income and white populations. While most blacks and many hispanics live in neighborhoods with more than twice their overall concentration, almost all low and high income households live in neighborhoods that are less than twice as concentrated as the overall low and high income households in upstate metropolitan counties.

Implications 

In earlier posts, I pointed out disparities in poverty and income between upstate cities and their suburbs, and between white, black and Hispanic residents.  This research extends the analysis to the neighborhood level, and shows that residents with low incomes, black and Hispanic residents are separated by neighborhood from a substantial majority of white residents.  Most white residents live in neighborhoods that have fewer than 5% black and Hispanic residents.  In contrast, 70% of all black residents live in neighborhoods that have more than 60% minority residents, despite the fact that blacks make up 12% of the population of upstate urban neighborhoods.

Equally important, the economic conditions of neighborhoods with high concentrations of black and Hispanic residents closely resemble those of low income neighborhoods.  Black and Hispanic neighborhoods have percentages of low income residents, unemployment levels, and percentages of households in poverty that are very similar to poor upstate urban neighborhoods.  The next post will provide some additional documentation of the economic differences between census tracts with high concentrations of minority group members and those which are primarily white.

The fact that neighborhoods with high concentrations of black/African-American residents are more separated from neighborhoods with high concentrations of white residents than predominantly low income neighborhoods are separated from high income neighborhoods suggests the continuing need to address the racial separation of upstate residents as well as the prevalence of low income neighborhoods if upstate is to remove the barriers that separate its residents.




Income Inequality and Minority Group Status in Upstate Metropolitan Areas

In an earlier post, I pointed out that residents of upstate metropolitan areas actually have incomes that are somewhat higher than the average for other cities in the so called “rust belt” – cities located in the old manufacturing regions of the Northeast and Midwest. But, the largest upstate cities – Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse have greater concentrations of poverty than average, while their suburbs have lower levels of poverty than comparable cities, creating a high degree of economic segregation.

Minority group status and location within an upstate central city are strongly related to economic disadvantage. Large income differences exist between minority group residents of central cities, and white residents.  Nationally, the median[1] family income was $68,426 in 2014.  Nationally, black/African-American families averaged $42,711, while families identifying as Hispanic or Latino averaged $44,013.  Families identifying as white (not Hispanic or Latino) averaged $73,974.[2]  But in one upstate city, the median income for Hispanic and Latino families was only $18,149, while in the suburbs of another upstate city, white[3] families averaged $91,693.

Median Family Incomes in Upstate Cities

Median Family Income – 2014
Black Hispanic White
Albany  $39,077 $29,268 $84,422
Buffalo  $29,155 $21,803 $55,516
Rochester  $28,752 $23,717 $56,178
Utica  $22,975 $18,149 $51,043
Syracuse  $27,902 $23,438 $57,246
Troy  $21,563 $20,061 $60,843
Schenectady  $27,338 $25,111 $62,818

There is a large gap between the median incomes of minority families in upstate cities and those of minorities nationally, and a huge gap between minority incomes in upstate cities and those of white residents of those cities – the median income of whites in upstate cities is two to three times that of blacks and Hispanics.  To give a sense of just how poorly minority families are doing in upstate cities, in every city, except for black families in Albany, minority median family incomes are below what would be earned by a worker making the minimum wage proposed by the Governor – $15 per hour, working 40 hours each week.

In five of seven upstate cities, the median incomes of white families were more than twice those of Black and Hispanic residents.  In Buffalo and Rochester, white median incomes were 1.9 times those of black residents, and more than two times those of Hispanics.

In each upstate city, except Albany, the median income of black families was less than half of the national median.  In two cities – Utica and Troy, the median income for black families was one-third of the national median.  For Hispanic families in Utica, the median family income was only one quarter of the national median for all races/ethnicities.  In Buffalo and Troy, the median family income for Hispanics was less than one third of the national median for all races.  White families in upstate cities had median incomes that were below the national median for all races in most cases (except Albany, which was above the national median.  But in each case, median incomes of white city families ranged from 75% to 90% of the national median.

Compared to the median income for all black families in America ($42,711), black families in upstate cities had substantially lower median incomes.  The average black family income median in upstate cities was $28,019.  In Troy, black families had a median income of $21,563, only half of the national median. In Utica, the median income for black families ($22,975) was only 54% of the national black family median.

The picture was just as grim for Hispanic families living in upstate cities.  For Hispanic families, the average upstate median income was $22,047.  In Utica, the the median income for Hispanic families – $18,149 – was only 40% of the national median for Hispanic families, and only 26.5% of the national median for all races and ethnicities.  In Buffalo and Troy, median Hispanic family incomes were less than half of the median income for all Hispanic families in the nation. Hispanic families in Troy and Buffalo had median incomes that were less than one third of the median income for all races and ethnicities.

Median Family Incomes Outside Upstate Cities

 Families living outside central cities in upstate counties had substantially higher median incomes than central city residents – regardless of racial or ethnic background.  In the case of blacks and Hispanics, suburban families had median incomes that were approximately twice those of black and Hispanic families in cities.  But, racial and ethnic differences were significant in suburban areas as well – minority families had median incomes that were substantially lower than those of white families.

Note that the estimates of median family incomes outside central cities have been estimated from available county and city median income data.[4]  Most residents of the counties where upstate cities are located live outside the cities.  Even outside the cities, there are significant disparities between the median incomes of minority and white families.  However, median incomes for minority and white families within counties outside central cities are significantly higher than those in the cities.

Median Family Income – 2014
Outside City Black Hispanic White
Albany  $67,400  $78,594  $91,693
Buffalo  $39,001  $44,463  $77,996
Rochester  $44,716  $44,179  $81,432
Utica  $50,785  $34,792  $70,457
Syracuse  $48,187  $57,778  $80,714
Troy  $47,521  $67,381  $84,992
Schenectady  $65,062  $52,505  $88,674

Black families in outside of central cities in upstate counties had median incomes ranging from $39,001 in Erie County, outside of Buffalo, to $67,400 in Albany County outside of Albany, averaging $51,810.  While these incomes were substantially below those of white suburban residents – for example the median income for white families in Albany County outside Albany was $91,693, and $77,996 in Erie County outside Buffalo, they were substantially above the median incomes for black families in central cities.  For example, the median income for black families in the city of Albany was $39,077, while in Buffalo, it was $29,155. On average, the median incomes of white families living outside central cities in upstate counties was 62.8% higher than that of black families.

The median family income of black families living outside upstate cities was lower than that of all families nationally – ranging form 57% of the national median in Buffalo to 99% of the median in Albany.  Compared to the national median income for black families ($42,711) black families living outside central cities median incomes were higher in all upstate counties, except Erie County outside Buffalo.

For Hispanics, the pattern was similar.  Hispanic family median incomes averaged $54,342 in counties outside upstate central cities. Hispanic families in Utica had a median income of $18,149, but Hispanic families outside Utica had a median income of $34,792. The median income of white families living in Oneida County outside Utica was $70,457.  On average, the median incomes of white families living outside central cities in upstate counties was 59.1% higher than for Hispanic families.  Hispanic families living in upstate counties outside central cities, other than in Oneida County outside Utica, had median incomes that were higher than the national median for Hispanics.

Where Minority and White Families Live

 Given that most residents of upstate metropolitan counties live outside central cities; a reader might conclude that because minority families living in suburban communities have substantially higher incomes than minority families, there are many minority families who have relatively high incomes.  In fact, the level of residential segregation is very high in suburbs outside upstate central cities.  Minority families make up very small percentages of suburban populations in upstate metropolitan areas.

Percent of Population
Outside City Black Hispanic
Albany 2.7% 2.7%
Buffalo 3.3% 2.0%
Rochester 4.3% 3.0%
Utica 0.9% 1.0%
Syracuse 2.3% 1.8%
Troy 0.9% 2.0%
Schenectady 1.4% 1.4%

In the counties surrounding upstate cities, minority families make up substantially less than 10% of families – in Oneida County, less than 2% of all families.  Outside Syracuse, only 2.3% of families identified themselves as black/African-American, while 1.8% identified themselves as Hispanic. Outside Rochester, 4.3% of families identified themselves as black and 3% of families were Hispanics.  These numbers stand in stark contrast to the percentage of minority families in upstate cities.

Percent of Population
Central City Black Hispanic
Albany 35.2% 8.0%
Buffalo 40.5% 10.4%
Rochester 44.8% 18.2%
Utica 13.6% 10.0%
Syracuse 33.4% 8.0%
Troy 16.6% 8.8%
Schenectady 19.0% 9.7%

While 7.4% of families living in Monroe County, outside Rochester were blacks or Hispanics, 63% of Rochester families were members of these minority groups.  In Syracuse, 41% of families were black or Hispanic, while in Onondaga County, outside Syracuse only 4.2% of families were black or Hispanic.

Implications

 Upstate New York metropolitan areas are not post-racial communities. White families living outside of central cities in upstate counties are the majority of county families. Minority group members constitute a tiny fraction of suburban populations.  Median incomes of white families living in suburban communities are substantially higher than the medians for all families and for white families nationally.

Minority families are concentrated in central cities – few enjoy the benefits of suburban housing and school systems. Typical black and Hispanic families bear a heavy burden of economic inequality. Median family incomes for minority city residents are very low – only one quarter to one third of the median incomes of white suburban residents.

The contrast between the relative affluence of suburban families and minority residents of central cities is extreme.  Consider that in Rochester, the median black family income was $28,752 in 2014 and of Hispanic families $23,717 while white families in Monroe County outside Rochester had a median income of $81,432.  In Schenectady, the median income for black families was 27,338 and for Hispanic families $25,111, but the median for white families in Schenectady County was $88,674.

The causes of minority group members’ privation have been discussed elsewhere – weak educational backgrounds that lead to limited job-skills, single parent families that can’t get good jobs, high levels of incarceration, and limited access to public transportation, among others.  There are no easy solutions to these problems, but there are many approaches to helping low income people in central cities.  Among them are:

  • Strengthen early child development interventions that promote better parenting, and provide more resources to help low income families access early childhood education options.
  • Help low income parents access better child care options by providing access to all disadvantaged children.
  • Consider adopting classroom management approaches used by successful charter schools in center city public schools.
  • Reduce the concentration of economically disadvantaged students in central cities though strategies like inter-district magnet schools.
  • Employ “dual-generation” assistance models for low income families that integrate a range of health, social and other services in local schools.
  • Leaders should emphasize to targeted audiences how difficult it is to raise children without a committed co-parent.
  • Offer a range of birth control measures, including long acting forms for free.
  • Strengthen SNAP (food stamp) administration. Because of wide variability in food stamp usage rates among eligible populations, consider state administration and increase the number of sites for in-person verification.
  • Consider providing a state supplement to the SNAP program to ensure more adequate support for nutrition.
  • Enhance support for community college programs that provide industry specific skills in high demand fields.
  • Support efforts to provide community college training with flexible class scheduling, and short modules outside traditional AA or certificate programs.
  • Increase or supplement the Earned Income Tax Credit – the program is an effective work incentive. Increasing benefits would provide more adequate support for low income families.
  • Expand or supplement the Child Tax Credit – make it fully refundable.
  • Consider increasing the minimum wage. Though trade-offs are likely in the form of increased unemployment if the minimum wage is raised to $15, a more moderate increase would provide a better balance between assisting low income workers, and potential lost jobs.
  • Address the negative impacts of high levels of incarceration in the minority male population. Consider ways to reduce the impact of “stop and frisk” policing strategies, reduce penalties for non-violent crimes, reduce barriers to employment for those who have completed prison sentences.
  • Focus on developing better public transit access to work sites and community college locations for central city residents.

Despite the stark reality of the economic and residential segregation of minority groups in upstate metropolitan areas, little attention has been paid to this problem at the state level.  The question is why political leaders haven’t made the economic deprivation of minority residents of central city residents a top policy priority, and how the needs of low income inner city residents can become a priority for them.

[1] The income at which half the families have greater incomes and half the families have incomes that are lower.

[2] Source:  U. S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey – 2014-2010, 5 year average data.

[3] Henceforth I will refer to voters who identify as “white, not Hispanic or Latino” as “white.”

[4] The products of median incomes and the number of families were calculated for counties and cities.  City totals were subtracted from county totals, and the result divided from the number of outside city families to derive median income estimates for outside city families.